Scott Brown

Have you ever considered something to be impossible, and then it happened? It was ‘impossible’ for man to achieve flight. Then came the Wright Brothers. It was ‘impossible’ to beat the Soviets at hockey. Then came the 1980 U.S. Olympic team. It was ‘impossible’ for two friends or family members to video chat with each other. Then came Skype and other software. It was ‘impossible’ to elect a Republican to the U.S. Senate seat held for decades by Massachusetts liberal Ted Kennedy. Then came Scott Brown.

Scott Brown’s chances of winning that seat seemed impossible for many reasons. The first and perhaps most obvious disadvantage for Brown is that Massachusetts is an extremely liberal state. In 2008, Barack Obama carried that state by 26 percentage points. Keep in mind that only 11% of Massachusetts voters are registered Republicans. The last time a Republican held that Senate seat was 1952 when Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., lost his re-election bid to John F. Kennedy. It is very difficult for Republicans to win in Massachusetts, but clearly not impossible.

In mid-September of last year, the Democratic candidate, Martha Coakley (Massachusetts’ Attorney General), had a 30-point lead over then State Senator Scott Brown in the polls. In October, she was polling at 26 points over Brown and by mid-November, she was back up to a 31-point advantage. Between January 2nd and 6th, the Boston Globe showed Martha Coakley with a 17-point lead. On January 4th, Rasmussen (a typically more conservative pollster) had Coakley up by 9 points.

However, with a week to ten days before the election, Scott Brown finally took the lead in the polls. With less than a week to go, the presumably frightened Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poured over half a million dollars into the race to help Coakley. During that same period, President Obama traveled to Massachusetts to endorse Coakley and stump for her. That was done with the intent of energizing the liberal base in Massachusetts. Obama may have rode into town with people cheering and waving palm branches, but that was no reflection of the gloom he and his loyal followers would experience just days later. 

On the day of the election (January 19th), Matt Drudge reported Brown having a 9-point lead in the polls. Despite trailing for months, Scott Brown pulled off a huge victory coming from behind. The election results weren’t even close. Brown received nearly 52% of the vote to Coakley’s 47%, a difference of well over 109,000 votes. How did this happen? Democrats have suggested a number of possibilities.

Perhaps their most common assertion is that Martha Coakley was an overall weak candidate. Compared to Scott Brown, she is a poor public speaker who is prone to gaffes. For instance, she said that former baseball player Curt Schilling is a Yankees fan. Curt Schilling led the Boston Red Sox to two World Series titles. Whoops!

Many Democrats believe that Coakley lost because voters were troubled by the current healthcare proposals, special negotiations to win healthcare votes (ex. the Cornhusker Kickback, the Louisiana Purchase, etc.), as well as high unemployment. Other Democrats, however, believe that Coakley lost because voters were frustrated with her party for not delivering on their 2008 promise to pass a healthcare overhaul. The Coakley campaign itself pointed fingers at Democrats on the national level for not taking an active role early on and not donating enough money down the stretch.

The truth is that all of these assertions are true. The most telling of all, in my opinion, is the American people’s rejection of Obama’s agenda and his performance in office thus far. Massachusetts is a dark blue state (again, only 11% of voters are registered Republicans). That being said, it is apparent that Scott Brown won the votes of independents and Democrats both. People are losing faith in the President and his agenda.

This referendum on Obama extends beyond Massachusetts though. Last year, the GOP won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey (both of which Obama carried in 2008). The American people are sending a clear message. They don’t want universal health care. They don’t want cap and trade. They don’t want higher taxes and higher unemployment. This frustration with Obama has already led to Republican victories in blue states and it is likely an indicator of GOP success to come in the 2010 midterm elections.

Obama lost credibility with this race. By travelling to Massachusetts, endorsing Coakley and stumping for her, he effectively attached his name to the race. That has not worked out well for him so far. Obama pushed for the Olympics in Chicago. That failed. Obama pushed for action on climate change in Copenhagen. That failed. Obama pushed for Coakley. That failed. He hasn’t exactly been able to turn water into wine lately. Again, when he attaches his name to things and they fail, his credibility suffers.

That suffering might very well continue. Scott Brown’s victory gives Republicans control of 41 seats in the U.S. Senate, leaving the Democrats with 59 seats. This is very important, because the Democrats no longer have the 60 votes needed to cloture (stop) a Republican filibuster. With the ability to filibuster, the Republicans can put a halt to items on President Obama’s agenda, most notably healthcare reform proposals that would turn over 1/6th of our economy to the federal government. The heart and soul of Obama’s campaign was universal healthcare. If he can’t get that passed, his credibility is shot.

With Scott Brown’s win, Democrats have come to a fork in the road. They can try to keep pushing Obama-care and risk absolute failure, or they can drop the public option and embrace more moderate/conservative ideas (ex. Tort Reform, making insurance available across state lines, tax credits, etc.). Neither outcome is exactly what they want, but they might not have a choice. Their immediate political future is on the line. 

The American people are not happy with the direction Obama and his party have been taking this country. Unfortunately for Democrats, the “we inherited this mess from George W. Bush” message isn’t holding water anymore. Unless they shape up soon, they will face tremendous losses this fall. If they can’t even win in Massachusetts, Democrats in for a world of hurt.